Take ten random people, teach them the rudiments of poker, give them each 100 bucks every monday and have them play poker 8 hours a day monday to friday every week.
You know where this is going, you’re going to get 8 guys every week who are broke by monday night, one who is broke by mid morning monday, and one or two guys splitting the pot of 1000 bucks a week.
And it’s always going to be the same guys.
Nothing changes except the guys now meet virtually through the computer screen, and the table and cards and chips are now virtual.
Pretty much the same guys are going to be winners and losers every week… there will be *some* variation based on the lack of face to face “tell” and gesture reading.
Big change is the guys won’t be talking about cars / boats / bikes / wimminz / beer / music / while playing, the *game* *itself* won’t change a lot.
Take all the guys outta the game and replace them with bots.
Game starts at 09:00 hrs Monday, by 09:15 8 bots are broke and the remaining 2 and duking it out.
In an attempt to fix phase 3 you put in artificial breaks when one playerbot puts 10% of it’s stake in the pot and loses it, this helps some to prolong the match, but it needs a lot more work.
The guys programming the bots and the virtual environment start demanding a cut of every pot.
A side game starts up where the playerbots can bet on other playerbots instead of / as well as their own hands.
Yet another side game starts up where the playerbots can bet futures long / short on other playerbots stakes going up or down with each hand played.
Yet another side game starts up when in a bid to cure the stagnation the rules are extended so that playerbots can routinely fold, or routinely bet and never have to expose their cards, and other playerbots can place side bets on the futures of these plays being long or short.
$1,000 a week seed capital for each playerbot is seen as the stumbling block, so the phase 5 guys starts injecting capital back into the game, but strategically, not with the best or worst players, bit with the cases that inject most variance into the game.
Nobody knows exactly how they got from 10 guys playing poker in a room to where they are now, nobody knows exactly what rules are currently active or dead code in the playerbots, the code is not a random number generator, but it has become arcane and complex enough that predicting the next outcome is becoming unreasonably difficult, poker is abandoned in favour of this new game, poker 2.0
I’ve mentioned it before, or you can google it, the Hargesian Goat Bubble, it’s a more eloquent description of the above.
Nobody can explain why a Brexit is tanking the asian markets, nobody can explain why a Brexit is causing german auto makers to plead with everyone (including the UK) to continue buying german autos (presumably this includes assembled in the UK BMW/Minis..) as usual, nobody can explain why a weak pound equalling a better export market for the UK and better foreign tourism market for the UK is bad, nobody can explain why they voted Brexit or Remain, nobody can explain why Enoch Powell’s statements about the then “Common Market” (EU) and immigration in the late sixties and mid seventies now seem little short of prophetically prescient and detailed and accurate, nobody can explain what a Brexit actually does or does not mean for the UK, or anyone else, nobody can explain why Hitlery is still in the running and on course to be #45, nobody can explain how this affects the shambolic (Npower) utility company that I buy my gas and electric from, given they are owned by the Germans, and the beat goes on.
The one thing that everyone is sure about, is that no matter who you are and how you voted (Brexit or Remain) you’re a fucking clueless twat because only a clueless twat could have voted the way you did (the obverse being if you voted the way they did you are a conscientious and intelligent adult) and now look at the fucking mess you have gotten us all in to…
Glad we sorted THAT one out…
About the only real factual intelligent responsible adult data that we have to go on is this;
- the “markets” fucking hate uncertainty and “irrationality”.
- the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent
So 8 more countries are looking at exiting the EU, the Tories are in turmoil, Labour is the same, Juncker / Merkel is the same, so one thing we can be fairly sure off is that this is not a “Lehman event” in the sense that on the Monday it is a what the holy fuck, and by Friday the ashes are settling where they may.
Nor are we yet in a state of systemic collapse, that’s what you had in the 1930’s where individual people were so scarred by what happened that 50 years later those who lived through it would *still* never trust a bank with their money or borrow money from anyone.
No, what we are in is a Kalifornia fault zone moment, where the earth shook out of nowhere with no warning, and people are looking at the buildings and flyovers and damns and power plants fearfully, looking for the signal that it is “safe” to go back inside and get on with quaffing the moccha latte’s.
Meanwhile the fault zone is still rumbling, and they aren’t aftershocks, so maybe it will all calm down, maybe this is the big one.
If the big one does come it is game over as we know it.
If it doesn’t, expect lots more legislation to protect the assets / infrastructure, none of which will have the slightest effect on when the big one does come.
Meanwhile the sun’s solar cycle (and nowadays we only talk about the 11 year cycle, he wonders of google search dumbing down science… which is like talking about biorhythms while discounting 2 of the 3 cycles that make it up) has conspired with ISIS / Brexiteers / The Donald / whatever to give us another cue ball / no sunspot activity local star.
Interesting times for sure.
Not regretting not being invested in the ponzi schemes of the stock markets / pensions / property asset bubbles and so on.